CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-12-16T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9854/-1
CME Note: This entry is for two CME in close succession, starting on 2015-12-16T09:24 UT and 2015-12-16T14:24 UT in LASCO C2.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-19T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-12-18T22:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Dec 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 17-Dec 19 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 17-Dec 19 2015

            Dec 17     Dec 18     Dec 19
00-03UT        1          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        1          1          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          4     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     3     

Rationale: Late on day two (18 Dec)/early on day three (19 Dec) two CMEs
from 16 Dec described in previous discussions, are expected to impact
Earth's magnetosphere, likely producing G1-Minor storm conditions late
on 18 Dec and early on 19 Dec.
Lead Time: 56.15 hour(s)
Difference: 17.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-12-17T07:18Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy